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The October Surprise.....

....or not, but it's getting creepy.....how WILL the Democrats blow it?

This is Dark Cloud on Wednesday, October 18, 2006.

It’s only a couple of weeks till the Congressional elections, and when all the bombast is batted down to a sane size and drowned in Grover Norquist’s bathtub, it looks like this is going to be a very bad election for the Republicans and perhaps especially so for the likes of Grover Norquist, the supposed anti-tax activist who is caught up in the Ralph Reed/Jack Abramoff connection of bribery and felonious activity which may well have a Colorado connection with substantial fallout, going back to the fight against Referenda C and D. It is quite likely the Democrats will regain both Houses of Congress and, if so, initiate investigations into the Bush Administration and its lobbyists like Norquist and quite possibly impeach and convict people of criminal incompetence and actions detrimental to the national security and interest. Be nice to see that attitude appear out here as well.

All polls show that the public doesn’t remotely think the GOP are the guys to save us from the mess they alone led us into. Even an attack by North Korea or Iran with a simultaneous announcement of Osama Bin Laden’s capture, shows no signs of being enough to swing the election towards the men and women who gave us fiascos in Tora Bora and Fallujah, Abu Graib and Saddam’s courtroom, and who include not just Mark Foley and Jack Abramoff, but Michael Brown and Bernie Kerik, Douglas Feith and Duke Cunningham, John Ashcroft and Donald Rumsfeld, Ken Lay’s residue and Paul Bremer, Dick Cheney and Karen Hughes, Tom DeLay and a Secretary of State whose sole accomplishment to date is that she’s Secretary of State.

The Democrats have every advantage in the world, from stand up candidates to issues on which they have been correct and with which the public now agrees; to the perfect storm of obese, corrupt Congressmen caught with illegal millions; a war we are clearly losing because they lied to us; a National Debt that would blanch FDR, and a Gay Pedophile Sex Scandal being spun by Republicans a leeeetle too festive to be convincing themselves. And, of course, it’s difficult to damn illegal aliens when the only reason they’re here is because of the jobs large company GOP supporters are offering. A house divided against itself cannot stand, and the GOP’s big tent is not just collapsing, it’s on fire.

Despite this rosy scenario, paranoids, both Democrat and Republican are quite concerned that “they” – and we know who “they” are, don’t we? Um. I don’t, but stay with me here…- “they” have an October Surprise that will irrevocably turn the election against their preferred candidates.

The GOP is convinced that’s what Foleygate is, the Dem’s October surprise, although they had to go back decades to find any relevance at all. The Democrats themselves are theorizing Rove has bin Laden in a White House closet, ready to reveal. But it’s beyond that, now. Nobody thinks the GOP can pull this one out.

Worse for the President, it now seems that the GOP is angry at both Bush and Rove for not preparing them for what they see as inevitable loss. Supposedly, Bush is refusing to admit they are in any danger of losing power. This is impressive confidence, but only if he knows something we don’t, not if he is, as Bob Woodward and many others clearly think, simply delusional, and unable to admit the truth to himself or anyone.

Either way, the Democrats had better be prepared to take power quickly and effectively and get its ducks in line for the Presidential campaign that starts – gross! – in one year. I worry they are not remotely prepared, and that too much frustration has built up for them to work together, and if they fail to right our ship, the Iraq War will become their albatross and not the GOP’s, and this because one way or the other the war will end before the next election. However our portion of it ends, we leave the Iraqis in a theocratic hell with thousands of their dead. What in the world will our explanation to history be for this war, either to the world or to ourselves?

I suspect one way we’ll try to explain it to ourselves is to simply forget it, another legacy of Reagan. The days that might have worked are long gone, and the next two years will be very painful for us, absent an October surprise the likes of which has not been imagined.