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Lesson Learned?

not so much,no......

This is Dark Cloud on Wednesday, August 14, 2013.

If there were any sure, undisputed takeaway from last November's election, it was that Republicans believe their own highly dubious myths and that their pollsters were incompetent. Of course, there is no longer any argument that polling is a pure science solely practiced by those who want the truth. Just about all are, at best, push polls designed to obtain info that can be spun and used and at the same time implant positive or negative feelings about a candidate or political issue.

Romney posed as the numbers man, dealing only with reality and fact, and surprise, most of his polls tended to show people believed that. It turns out that their polls were embarrassingly wrong, and that their pollsters had simply used templates decades old when white men exclusively ruled, and devoted effort and time into the category known as Likely Voters. This category was based upon those who, when polled, knew their polling place in advance. But the young woke up and used their smart phones on election day to get directions if they had not already voted. This didn't occur to Romney, the numbers guy, or the GOP. Some very likely voters were not counted.

The Democrats tended to believe Nate Silver's polls and methods, and he was correct in every race and very close to the exact percentage of victory. Romney's supposed organizational get out the vote giant, code named ORCA, was a fiasco of dimensions that have no equal yet, and upon examination turned out to be just an old irrelevant procedure, only envisioned with smart phones. They never tested it. And it didn't work.

But, all this has been discussed and it's no longer contested. Republicans cannot but have learned their lesson and stopped bragging about competencies they do not have, but wish they did.

You'd think.

Today, a leading conservative group unveiled poll results that run counter to all that. It's telling Republicans who are again considering shutting down the government - in an effort to defund Obamacare - that the support for them is there and would not hurt the GOP, and that not doing it would. It is based upon Heritage Action for America's poll of - ahem - Likely Voters in competitive districts.

The House move to defund Obamacare is led by Congressmen Mike Lee of Utah, Marco Rubio of Florida, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Ted Cruz of Texas, at least two of whom are running for President next go round.

The problem here is that GOP whip Evan Cantor says they don't have the votes in the House to defund Obamacare, and Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell has pointed out that shutting down the government wouldn't stop Obamacare anyway. Yet, so weak is the GOP leadership they cannot slap down this counterproductive effort based upon already discredited group think based upon incompetent polling.

Other takeaways from the election might be the Tea Party is only of value in deep red districts and only in Republican primaries, and that Republicans have lost several important demographics. That, mathematically, gets worse each year for the GOP, because those categories are Hispanics, the young, the well educated, and women. Let's chat about women.

You may recall that the RMGO, Rocky Mountain Gun Owners, when alarmed last February during the gun safety legislation debate, announced plans to recall four Colorado legislators who threatened to support gun control. Two of those failed right off due to complete incompetence and popularity of the elected official. But, as usual, the RMGO started bullying until even the female Republican Representative of Evergreen became annoyed with their attention to her, which was weird because she already opposed the bills. This led to the Rep, after a no doubt sparkling conversation with a RMGO lacky, telling him to do something Dick Chaney suggested to Senator Leahy. At that point the lacky told her to expect a primary fight with mailers in her district.

Now, the RMGO is not entirely a Republican organization, but one the GOP courts as it does the NRA. It's political power is dubious in a purple state becoming more blue each election. Yet, here they are trying to bully someone, a white woman, who already was against the bill but apparently might be subject to moderation or compromise or governing responsibly or something awful like that. Who knows? But from a constructive point of view, what the hell was the point of antagonizing a Colorado legislator and Colorado women in general?

At least, the supposition that the RMGO has great power existed and might have proven beneficial, but again, like petulant children, the far right risks losing even that, for no reason or possible benefit. The Romney campaign died in vain.