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The GOP kicks ass across the nation.......this will be horrible

This is Dark Cloud on Wednesday, November 05, 2014.

So, that was pretty depressing. Although Boulder itself stayed pretty much on course with local offices and issue, with no upsets or surprises, I have to say I was shocked by the election results elsewhere in Colorado, yesterday, a huge victory for the Republicans.

Among the winners was election statistic guru Nate Silver. He missed a few big race outcomes, although not enough to wobble his throne as king of the poll watchers. He does no polling himself, is just an aggregator of the polls done by others, and he seems to have the gift. He was attacked this cycle when it became apparent he wasn't a Democratic shill, as many apparently believed his support for Obama through the years warped his numbers. Turns out it just what the numbers told him, and he remains consistently correct in the vast majority of races.

When polls favor one party, the other claims polling bias, which was certainly true for Rasmussen in the past and Gallop last election. They seemed to favor the GOP but just before the actual 2012 election, suddenly their polling showed the same as other polls, that the Dems would win. But this year, says Silver, "...the average Senate poll conducted in the final three weeks of this year’s campaign overestimated the Democrat’s performance by 4 percentage points. The average gubernatorial poll was just as bad, also overestimating the Democrat’s performance by 4." This does evidence polling error but also raises the issue of whether polling is ever accurate.

Democrats have always thought big turnouts favored them, because it means younger voters and Hispanics, whom they consider their hidden strength. They may be. Silver says in 2012 Colorado younger voters were 20 percent of the electorate. Yesterday? Only 13 percent. That alone could explain it. But, it gets worse. He goes on to say "Turnout among Democrats was at 28 percent, a record low in Colorado Senate races dating back to 1992. The voting was all by mail in the state this year, and though Democrats thought it would help them with younger voters, it appears to have done the opposite...."

Early this morning, Governor John Hickenlooper was announced to have won a second term against a candidate I myself found reprehensible, incompetent, and unqualified, despite having once been a Congressman. Hickenlooper is okay with me in all major areas save one: he is an unblushing supporter of fracking, and has publicly exhibited his belief in its safety by drinking what he says is fracking fluid, the stuff they pump underground. This shocked and angered many young progressives, and friends of mine just dropped Hickenlooper and vowed to vote for a Green party candidate or not vote. So student loan support, health insurance, and legal abortion are back on the front burners along with fracking. Way to go.

Having lived through decades of third party candidates and the damage they do, I'm more shocked and angry at any who failed to vote over one issue, especially when the candidate they abandon is clearly someone who, in the face of evidence, would easily change his or her mind. The Tea Party doodlers can't change their mind: their politics are not logic but dogma, divinely inspired. You're either with them or against them. If proof emerges that clearly without question proved fracking was dangerous, there is no way Bob Beauprez or any Republican could easily turn against it. Hickenlooper would not have that problem. Still, I don't understand his support for something so difficult to assess in the short time the new methods of fracking have been in force. But he's respondent to logic.

The race may go to recount, so even this isn't really for sure yet.

Here in Boulder, the Coroner, the County Clerk, and a County Commissioner had been targeted by reactionaries primarily in East Boulder County. These mostly aged and flamboyantly Christian types publicly labor under the impression that their values, tastes, and way of life are the American norm and shared by the majority, if only the media wasn't against them and all sorts of conspiracies undermined them. They have supported losing candidates and causes for decades, and cannot understand why, in an election that saw the GOP triumphant everywhere but Boulder, their often petty issues involving their social status were not approved by their fellow citizens. The Commissioner they dramatically vowed to kick out of office won with three times the votes of second place.

It's difficult to admit minority status, verdad?